Measures of economic conditions are often based on 13-week cycles. LPL Financial calls it the
Current Conditions Index. If you want the full report, email me. Here are the three things I found most interesting about the latest 13-week analysis.
The VIX Index is the measure of volatility that is implied in the prices of options of the S&P 500. It is a market-based estimate of future volatility. Although not necessarily pridictive, it does measure the current degree of fear felt by investors.
13 Weeks = little change
The International Council of Shopping Centers tabulates data on major retailers’ sales compared to the same week a year earlier. This measures the current pace of consumer spending and consumer spending is 2/3 of our GDP.
13 Weeks = significant rise
As a measure of trade, the Association of American Railroads tracks the number of carloads or cargo that moves by rail in the United States each week. A growing economy moves more cargo, weather permitting.
13 Weeks = slight decrease
I hope you find this useful.
Until next week,
Susan R. Linkous